telecommunication products

Aone hundred year survey on inflation published by The Economist two years ago contained one stunning fact. The only item of cost to have gone down in a hundred year time span was the cost of a transatlantic telephone call. The telecom sector, nonetheless, attracts the highest level of investment globally, despite the fact that telecommunication products pricing has fallen, thanks to technological innovation. The simple explanation for this apparent inconsistency is that the lowering of prices has spread telephony use by benefiting the customer and thus growing the industry. In this the telecom equipment regulator must work together with the consumer, for they are co-drivers of the industry, with the regulator controlling the wheel and the consumer the accelerator/brake pedals. Thus far the regulator has managed, hopefully, to remove vexatious issues by introducing a unified licensing regime. His next move, following similar progress in the US, would be to have number portability. This means that the consumer is able to retain his number even whilst switching carriers. At present he is loath to switch carriers, and suffers all the poor quality of service which all carriers invariably inflict, for fear of losing his number and having to inform all his contacts. The US Supreme Court has directed adoption of number portability and India should also follow. It is then that there would be true competition and it will be the consumer who will drive efficiency and grow the industry. Already, the falling rates for SMS, roaming and long distance charges are an indication that competition is working and driving the industry; the jigsaw would be complete with number portability. There are several technologies that are emerging, and which will once again throw challenges, for the technologies would cut across regulatory boundaries. The Techonology Quarterly review in The Economist (December 6) mentions ‘software designed radios’ which are radios that are reconfigurable using software. “A mobile phone based on smart radio technology might, for example, be able to switch between cellular standards used in different parts of the world,” says the report. One company has already demonstrated a chip, called the Sandblaster, capable of switching, through software, between CDMA and GSM, (and, in future, Wi-fi) and telephone instruments based on smart radio technology, would make this possible. The ensuing competition would be immensely beneficial to consumers, but would need number portability to make it effective. In macro economy news, the outlook remains positive. Forex reserves have hit $97.5 billion and would hit a century faster than most of the Indian batsmen. The CEO of Crisil expects several rating upgrades, and a doubling of debt issuances, to Rs 500 billion in the fiscal year to March 05. Interest rates, however, appear to have bottomed out, according to several CEOs. Foreign investment continues to pour in and drive the stock market, with the BSE Sensex gaining 184 points to end the week at 5,315. In corporate news of interest, Ranbaxy has announced a deal to acquire RPG Aventis, telecom products manufacturers. The company has a pipeline of 52 molecules which include 18 of the top 20 best selling molecules. The market continues to be in an up run and buying on dips, even small ones (buying fundamentally good shares in honestly managed companies at around 8 - 10 per cent below peak price is as good a strategy as any). The government has promised to drive economic reforms forward after recent electoral victories and if they live up to that promise (though that does not constitute a strong point for a politician) the market can only boom.