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AFTER bearing the brunt of the economic downturn at the beginning of this decade, the technology sector looks as if it may be among the best positioned to benefit when the global economy recovers from the current recession. Of course, that’s partly because it’s not tech’s bubble that burst this time. Real estate and finance have that distinction. Yet tech companies also appear to have learned tough lessons from the Internet bust that have helped them manage through the latest slump. Many cut costs and made other hard choices early on, and now look poised to profit if corporate and consumer demand begin to climb. “Have we learned from previous mistakes? Absolutely,” says Niklas Savander, executive vice-president at phone giant Nokia. “Not everyone has managed perfectly, but I would say the tech industry has managed it better than others.” Investors are betting that’s the case. The techheavy Nasdaq has rallied in the past month and is up 5% for the year, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and Dow Jones industrial average are down. Shares in Cisco Systems, IBM, Research In Motion, and Apple have risen at least 10% in 2009. “Right now, the stocks are on the bargain table,” says Jerome I Dodson, CEO of Parnassus Investments. “If there is even a small increase in demand, I suspect that tech stocks will take off.” These could be misplaced hopes. If the economy continues to slide, tech companies won’t see much benefit from their belttightening and other moves. And the economic outlook remains cloudy. Tech retail sales, for example, slid 10% in March, according to government data, far worse than the 4.1% drop in February. “It’s still pretty ugly,” says Bill Whyman, senior managing director at International Strategy & Investment. CISCO’S INVENTORY VIGILANCE Tech companies have taken a number of steps to position themselves for a recovery. They’ve laid off workers, closed facilities, and outsourced even more of their production. Many companies have also hoarded cash for years, even in the face of investor complaints. Now as other companies scramble for financing, tech giants such as Cisco, Apple, IBM and Microsoft have billions on hand for acquisitions, research and development, and other long-term plans. Perhaps most important is how aggressively tech companies have managed production and inventories. Whyman figures that while hardware suppliers sales fell 5.8% from the third to fourth quarter of last year, inventories dropped even faster, by about 9%. It’s a sign tech companies quickly throttled back on making new PCs, mobile phones, and chips in anticipation of weak demand, saving themselves from having to write off excess inventory, as they had to do in years past. Take Cisco. In April 2001 the networking giant made one of the more painful confessions of the Internet bust: It had let so much networking gear pile up in inventory that it had to take a $2.5 billion charge for equipment no one would ever buy. Ever since, it’s been working to make sure such a thing never happened again. Supply chain chief Angel Mendez is grilled at monthly reviews by CEO John T. Chambers and other top brass, and Cisco has half the inventory it did in 2001 even though it is twice as big. “It didn’t take John eight years to start asking questions (about inventory levels),” says Mendez. “He asks about every eight minutes.” Nokia, Intel and others also slowed production last fall within weeks or even days of seeing demand slide. They brought supply chains—often involving dozens of companies—to near hibernation. A few shut down. David Yoffie, a vice-president at server maker Rackable Systems, sent an e-mail to hundreds of partners last November telling them to stop all production immediately. “Customers had hit the brakes hard,” he says. SMARTPHONES, THE SMART BET brass hardware manufacturer It takes more than a wary eye to pull off such feats. Robert B. Carter, chief information officer at FedEx, says high-tech and life sciences companies have “the most advanced supply chains of any industry,” thanks to investments in new technologies and talent. Just as Apple customers can go online to track exactly where their new iPhone is en route to their door, tech companies and their suppliers, brass hardware manufacturers, and distributors typically share the same real-time view of actual demand. That’s led to other innovations. In the past, companies only air-freighted goods when inventories of a hot product ran out. Now, that’s become quite common for small, light, high-end products. Although air mail is 10 times more expensive than shipping by boat, the products arrive in a day or two instead of three weeks, so they can be shipped after a customer places an order rather than in anticipation of demand. “If there is a spike in demand we can increase production. If not, we don’t overbuild,” says Liam Casey, CEO of PCH International, which helps Western companies produce and distribute products from China. Still, even the leanest companies need growth to turn investors’ heads. Research In Motion’s shares have risen more than 50% this year in part because of strong revenue growth in the latest quarter. And because it cut inventory so drastically, the outlook for both sales and profits is promising. Some big phone companies have no more BlackBerrys on hand for their subscribers, says Neil Mawston, an analyst at Strategy Analytics in London. “Because of the de-stocking, there’s going to be a restocking,” he says. Some see signs of better times in even the most savaged segments of tech. Take chips, where many companies took a huge hit by cutting production to less than 50% of capacity, vs 80% in flush times. BusinessWeekkey:

brass hardware manufacturers

India’s unique capabilities in the IT and ITES sectors are well documented. There have been multiple surveys endorsing India’s dominance and pegging India’s market share at over 50% of the global outsourcing industry. Nearly 75% of Fortune 500 companies rely on Indian software expertise to make them competitive. The growing concentration of the software services industry in India and lack of further financial incentives from the government have prompted global companies to adopt a de-risking strategy and look at other viable locations for growing their business. The “India+1” model for software outsourcing is a reality – and Indian companies are seeking to adapt to the changing world order. More and more of them are adding global operations capability to offer this diversification themselves. Most countries wanting to position themselves as an India+1 destination offer strong incentives to invite Indian IT players and others to set up shop on their shores. The Greater China region, the number one destination for hardware electronics manufacturing today, is well ahead of any other country. It offers unmatched scale, skills and infrastructure. Interestingly, there also seems to be a similar sense of risk awareness among electronics manufacturers and their customers along the China-Taiwan belt – constituting nearly 56% of the global electronics manufacturing industry. There is definitely room for a second destination for risk diversification and keeping costs under check. Multiple survey reports from service providers in India and China demonstrate the large gap now between China and India in terms of business expense. Salaries in China are shown to be double those of India; property prices also have crept ahead. A ‘China+1’ strategy seems to be taking shape and India could well be the beneficiary if it gets its act together in the electronics manufacturing space. Apart from the opportunity the ‘China+1’ position offers, there is a bigger challenge of increasing domestic consumption which should force us to look at this space very aggressively. Today, the global electronics hardware industry ishardware suppliers reportedly $1.75 trillion and is projected to reach $2 trillion by 2014. Demand in the Indian market stands at $45 billion and is projected to grow to $125 billion by 2014.brass hardware manufacturers In India, there is a massive mismatch in demand and supply, with domestic production catering to less than 45% of domestic consumption. This gap will only get wider with increased consumption and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 22% between 2009-20. At this rate and without scaling domestic manufacturing, the foreign exchange needs are estimated to be as big as what we spend on oil by 2020.brass hardware manufacturers Clearly, building India’s manufacturing capability is critical. In addition to reduction in technology costs that a full component ecosystem would generate, it would also contribute significantlyby creating high quality direct and indirect manufacturing and service jobs in the hi-tech field; giving India greater standing in the global IT manufacturing industry; stimulating increased technology and knowledge transfer to domestic firms; lowering the price of information infrastructure/PCs and other electronic equipment for Indian consumers; and making locally produced electronic hardware more competitive globally. To better understand the factors keeping the electronics supply chain from being established, a survey was conducted by a leading hardware vendor in which feedback of 35 suppliers was collected and analysed. It found that more than half had never considered India for investment. Of those that had, opportunities for sales within India and the possibility of realising operational cost savings were the primary drivers. Of those that had not invested in India, concerns over infrastructure, taxes, labour issues and lack of incentives were primary deterrents. High transaction costs – driven by cumbersome documentation and inordinate delays – owing to a complex process are another problem. While infrastructure remains a long-standing issue with enough written about the need to improve in that area, here are the top five enablers we need to work on immediately. These short-term measures can give a boost to us to get this industry started similar to software services in the late-1980s. One, the government should offer a long-term, stable tax structure and a comprehensive range of incentives to instil confidence among potential investors. Introducing GST and having a unified tax structure for states would lead to ease of conducting business. Two, labour laws should be made more flexible to help reduce overall cost of employment. It is important that India formulates a more liberal contract labour procedure and strives to establish a meaningful skills development programme in partnership with the industry. Moreover, industrial relations, a sensitive aspect in the manufacturing sector, should be made more conducive and cordial by a proactive set of policy measures. Three, create strong demand generation for technology by expanding e-governance initiatives and IT investments in healthcare and education. Four, reduce steps and extensive documentation requirements. Finally, industry and government should collaboratively launch a communications campaign targeting electronics manufacturers and help resolve misconceptions about doing business in India. It is heartening to see the government move to address these issues. Apart from creating a multitiered special incentive package scheme for electronics manufacturers, the government is also considering the setting up of a special purpose vehicle under a National Electronics Mission, which would act as a nodal agency for the electronics industry. Time is of the essence and we need to act fast. The writer is president, Dell India.

Weakening trade barriers boon for Indian agri biz

Ahmedabad: India’s agricultural produce may have to wait a while before it tastes the fruit of global success, but Indian agri-business players are certain it is only a matter of time as western trade barriers are living on borrowed time. Inspite of pre-conference signs indicating that ensuing round of World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) ministerial talks at Hong Kong may yield little in terms of concrete advances, there is overwhelming optimism that American and European trade barriers will collapse over next two-three years. India is a force to reckon with, says icecream manufacturer Vadilal’s Rajesh Gandhi, adding, “India’s bargaining power on the WTO has never been greater.” Indeed, with allies like China, Argentina, Brazil and Australia, India now packs considerable muscle. But, like other developing nations, India is unable to export its agricultural produce due to colossal western trade barriers. For instance, despite being the world’s largest milk producer, its milk exports are negligible. RS Sodhi of dairy giant Amul feels western governments are losing patience with their uncompetitive farmers. agricultural products manufacturers In the European Union, for example, with almost half the budget being pumped into agricultural subsidies, citizens and politicians alike are now recognising that supporting productive industries could fetch better returns. agricultural products exporters With its low-cost economy and the highest irrigated land-surface in the world, India is in a prime position to become a leading exporter of agricultural produce in an open world market, which also has major consequences for overall development. Indian agricultural products “The quality of life in Indian villages stands to improve drastically within the next three years if western barriers continue to fall as expected,” says Piruz Khambatta, chairman, Confederation of Indian Industry’s (CII) food-processing committee. “Agriculture has a lot of social ramifications. Half the population is made up of the poor living in villages, working as casual labour on the farms,” says Khambatta. With agricultural exports as core strength, Khambatta is confident that the “forgotten” part of India’s recent economic success will get a chance to compete. Sodhi too estimates an end to western subsidies to translate into a 20 per cent increase in the local milk producer’s income. “A fall in subsidies would create big opportunities at a rural level and a reduction in migration to urban centres like Ahmedabad.” Such opportunities would help India allay its growing urban-rural divide. Unfortunately Indian villages will have to wait a little while longer before their agricultural produce goes international.

The Pope’s moral blunders on outsourcing

Religion and business rarely mix well. This shows up in the encyclical of Pope Benedict XVI. The encyclical0 generally supports globalization, but criticizes western companies that outsource business to developing countries. This criticism has an unfortunate ethnic slant. The Pope echoes the wish of a white labour aristocracy in the West to snatch jobs and income away from much poorer but more competitive workers in Third World countries. That is repugnant in both economic and moral terms.brass hardware manufacturers The western argument cannot quite be called racist. Politicians and workers in the West are not all white — some are black or brown. Yet, the ethnic implications of the western protest against outsourcing cannot be ignored. The protest rarely focuses on outsourcing to white countries like Poland, Latvia or Bulgaria. It focuses overwhelmingly on outsourcing to black, brown and yellow nations. This is mainly on economic grounds — wages are lower in Asia than in Eastern Europe, and so, the scope for outsourcing is far greater. Yet, the ethnic implications cannot be ignored. The mainly white labour aristocracy of the West is clamouring to get companies to shut down jobs and production in countries with black, brown and yellow workers. This means impoverishing poor workers to subsidize the labour aristocracy. Instead of being ashamed of trying to rob the poor of jobs, the labour aristocracy talks in high moral tones, as though it has a God-given right to jobs that have actually gone entirely on merit to the Third World. For most of history, China and India were the richest countries in the world, with the most advanced technologies and best jobs.hardware suppliers The Industrial Revolution changed that — the best jobs moved to the West, and millions of Indian textile workers were rendered unemployed by British mills. The western labour aristocracy never complained of that shift of the best jobs from the East to the West, but cannot countenance a shift in the opposite direction. One valid western objection, on both economic and moral grounds, relates to the use (mainly by China) of prison labour, forced labour and child labour to produce cheap goods for export. Such exports have largely been checked, and now constitute a negligible part of outsourcing. This objection does not apply at all to India’s burgeoning exports of software or BPO, or to the shift of 80,000 IBM jobs or 35,000 Accenture jobs to India. China has become the world’s biggest supplier of manufactured goods, while India has become a major exporter of computer software, back-office services and R&D. This has transformed the economies of the two most populous countries in the world, made them the fastestgrowing in the world, and helped hundreds of millions of poor people to rise out of poverty. You might think that the Pope would hail this as a great development for humanity. Instead, he has parroted the bogus claims of the white labour aristocracy. His encyclical says, “the so-called outsourcing of production can weaken the company’s sense of responsibility towards the stakeholders — namely the workers, the suppliers, the consumers, the natural environment, and broader society — in favour of the shareholders, who are not tied to a specific geographical area and who, therefore, enjoy extraordinary mobility.” The racial implications of this leave me dumbstruck.brass hardware manufacturers The Pope has posed the issue as one of stakeholders versus shareholders. But are white stakeholders the only ones that matter? When IBM shifts 80,000 jobs to India , 80,000 Indian stakeholders replace American ones. Are the rights of 80,000 Indian stakeholders any less than those of the Americans they replace? When Chinese suppliers outbid American ones in supplying hardware to IBM, are the Chinese lesser stakeholders than the Americans they replace? The Pope is simply wrong in posing outsourcing as a conflict between shareholders and stakeholders. Outsourcing merely globalizes stakeholders across the world instead of leaving them within narrow national walls. And as a believer in one world, the Pope should be encouraging this spread of stakeholders across all humanity. Shareholders are getting globalised no less than workers, suppliers or consumers. Many shareholders of Citibank and IBM come from the West Asia, China or Japan. Are they not stakeholders on par with American ones? There is no moral imperative at all for Japanese or Arab shareholders of IBM to try and shift jobs from the Third World to the US. Yet, US politicians and trade unions talk as though morality lies in US jobs alone. In truth, it is a perversion of morality to penalize non-American workers and shareholders just to promote US jobs. Hopefully, Pope Benedict will have the courage to say so in his next encyclical.

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